The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 17 knots. ================== Typhoon warnings were up for Tinian, Saipan, Alamagan and Pagan islands. ============================================= They are by definition the strongest hurricanes that can form on planet Earth. Fortunately, the eyewall passed well to the north of the islands, though “destructive” wind gusts of 74 mph or more were possible within the spiral rain bands. Category 5 hurricanes are tropical cyclones that reach Category 5 intensity on the Saffir–Simpson Hurricane Scale. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 12 knots. 48 HRS: 14.9N 118.5E – 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) South China Sea Once Goni emerges into the South China sea after crossing Luzon, high wind shear, drier air, and cooler sea surface temperatures will likely prevent significant re-intensification. 210 nm from the center in northern quadrant President Trump declared an emergency for the Northern Mariana Islands on Oct. 24, 2018. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 12 knots. Hurricane Iota, the 30th named storm this season, is expected to barrel into the Nicaraguan coast as a catastrophic Category 5 hurricane. 24 HRS: 13.8N 123.5E – 95 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Over land Camarines Sur (Luzon/Philippines) Goni is expected to make landfall on Luzon Island in the Philippines on Sunday as a category 4 storm, and pass very close to the capital of Manila at category 1 strength or stronger. Sea East of the Philippines. Marianas islands (Southwest of Guam). 12 HRS: 14.9N 137.6E – 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Sea East of the Philippines 48 HRS: 15.1N 114.2E – 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea Sinclair video (link near end) was particularly useful – short and to the point for laypeople. These favorable conditions are expected to persist through Saturday. By one method of classifying tropical cyclones, Halong was Earth’s eighth-strongest storm ever. Preston, your comment is an inappropriate, broad brush over-generalization. At landfall, Katrina was a Category 3, and by the time it hit New Orleans, it was even weaker (Seed et al., 2005, pp. The U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico suffered calamitous strikes in the 2017 hurricane season, and Guam was recently struck by Typhoon Mangkhut. 48 HRS: 19.8N 129.1E – 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Sea East of the Philippines At 18:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Goni (905 hPa) located at 13.7N 125.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 120 knots with gusts of 170 knots. Sea East of the Philippines. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 14 knots. 12 HRS: 14.0N 125.2E – 100 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Sea East of the Philippines The official Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecast at 11 a.m. EDT Friday called for Goni to be a weaker but still devastating 145-mph category 4 typhoon at landfall in Luzon early on Sunday, November 1 (U.S. EDT). TROPICAL STORM ATSANI (T2020) 72 HRS: 19.5N 129.5E – 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Sea East of the Philippines. TYPHOON GONI (T2019) Tropical Cyclone Advisory #37 – 9:00 AM JST November 1 2020 Major Hurricane: A tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 111 mph (96 knots) or higher, corresponding to a Category 3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Category 5 hurricanes are much rarer late in the hurricane season when compared to August and September. 12 HRS: 16.7N 133.6E – 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Sea East of the Philippines Is cat6 disqus finished? ========================= Even more alarming was Emanuel’s simulation that storms intensifying by 70 mph or more within 24 hours — which he found had occurred on the average of only once per century in the late 20th-century climate — may occur “every 5-10 years by the end of this century.”. Storm Force Winds Sea East of the Philippines. Storm Force Winds 72 HRS: 19.2N 129.2E – 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Sea East of the Philippines, models are hinting, the season is NOT over yet..huh…………, Dvorak at 8.0 according to Japan Meteorological Agency. ============================================= Forecast and Intensity Please read our Comments Policy prior to posting. We plan to do the next “Eye on the Storm” post on Sunday afternoon. 24 HRS: 14.5N 125.0E – 100 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Sea East of the Philippines 48 HRS: 15.0N 113.6E – 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) South China Sea ========================= With gusts approaching 195 mph, Super Typhoon Hagibis is an absolute beast. This scale estimates potential property damage. It also found 72 storms with maximum sustained winds above 190 mph by the end of the century, compared with nine such storms in a simulation of the late-20th-century climate. At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Atsani (1000 hPa) located at 12.5N 140.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. These monster storms pack wind speeds of 157 miles per hour or … This comes very close to the world record for fastest 24-hour intensification: 120 mph, set by Hurricane Patricia off the Pacific coast of Mexico in October 2015. 72 HRS: 15.3N 112.8E – 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea, Japan Meteorological Agency The most recent typhoon to pass within 30 miles of Manila was Typhoon Rammasun of 2014 (known as “Glenda” in the Philippines), which passed 25 miles to the south of Manila as a category 2 storm with 105 mph winds. 12 HRS: 15.4N 127.7E – 115 knots (CAT 5/Intense Typhoon) Sea East of the Philippines That puts Japan squarely in its sights this weekend. He found an uptick in the number of storms that would rapidly intensify just before landfall. In general, Category 5s form in clusters in single years. I can’t get it to load, This has been working for me – https://disqus.com/embed/comments/?base=default&f=wund&t_u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.wunderground.com%2Fcat6%2Fcategory-6-sets-its-sights-over-the-rainbow&t_s=weather_underground_2993&t_e=Weather%20Underground&t_d=Weather%20Underground%20%C2%B7%20Conversations%20%C2%B7%20Disqus&t_t=Weather%20Underground&s_o=desc#version=86e2f360b7333fa29fb178e3f0da49c8, Japan Meteorological Agency Ophelia peaked as a Category 5 storm with 160 mph winds on January 13, 1958. Do you have a link to the disqus page on wundergdound? Tropical Cyclone Yasa, currently the strongest storm on Earth, is headed for a potentially devastating landfall in Fiji within the next 24 hours. 120 nm from the center in southeastern quadrant, Forecast and Intensity Two other tropical cyclones just missed achieving category 5 status in 2019, topping out with 155 mph winds (157 mph winds are the threshold for a Cat 5): Cyclone Fani in the North Indian Ocean on May 2, and Cyclone Ambali in the Southwest Indian Ocean. The typhoon killed 106 people in the Philippines and knocked out power to 90% of Manila. Japan Meteorological Agency =================== Roofs of most residential and industrial buildings are completely damaged. Forecast and Intensity A little pressure error from PAGASA here. Super Typhoon Goni joins Cyclone Amphan (160 mph winds in the North Indian Ocean in May) and Cyclone Harold (165 mph winds in the Southeast Pacific in April) as one of Earth’s three category 5 storms of 2020. Tropical cyclones that occur within the Southern Hemisphere to the east of 90°E are officially monitored by one or more tropical cyclone warning centres. 120 nm from the center in southern quadrant, Forecast and Intensity Tropical Cyclone Advisory #19 – 15:00 PM JST October 31 2020 These are run by the Fiji Meteorological Service, New Zealand's MetService, Indonesia's Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi, dan Geofisika, Papua New Guinea's National Weather Service and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Sea East of the Philippines. Over land Albay (Luzon/Philippines). The exact long-term implications of the storm remain to be seen. 1846 hurricane Havana, Cuba damage.PNG 471 × 286; 167 KB Irrespective of where Hagibis ultimately ends up, the storm has the potential to influence U.S. weather in about 10 days’ time. Goni put on an extremely impressive bout of rapid intensification beginning at 0Z October 28, strengthening by 145 mph, from a 30-mph tropical depression to a 175-mph super typhoon, in 54 hours. Japan Meteorological Agency Editor focusing on extreme weather, climate change, science and the environment. ========================= The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 15 knots. 12 HRS: 14.4N 126.3E – 110 knots (CAT 5/Intense Typhoon) Sea East of the Philippines 48 HRS: 15.2N 119.6E – 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) South China Sea In 22 hours, Hagibis’ winds increased by 115 mph. They are rare in the northeastern Pacific Ocean and generally form only once every several years. 24 HRS: 15.2N 118.4E – 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Atsani (998 hPa) located at 16.0N 132.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The only other Atlantic Category 5 … Thanks for all, as usual. Gale Force Winds 72 HRS: 14.8N 111.1E – 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) South China Sea, Japan Meteorological Agency A flash flood warning was up for Guam, as well, where total rainfall amounts of 3 to 7 inches were expected. Its 160 mph winds firmly establish it as a Category 5-equivalent super typhoon, looming as a behemoth on satellite after a period of extremely rapid intensification. Tropical cyclones forming between 5 and 30 degrees North latitude typically move toward the west. From there, a gradual weakening trend will commence. We can think for ourselves. 72 HRS: 18.7N 129.1E – 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Sea East of the Philippines, Sorry … didn’t realize it had worked the first time …, PAGASA with 890 central pressure just before the Catanduanes island landfall. All things in the way of the storm waters are swept away. just sayin. Japan Meteorological Agency Houses and buildings had had shingles and bare roofs on the south side but not the north, east, or west. I think the +96 hour models are ….questionable as to their reliability. Tropical Cyclone Advisory #27 – 3:00 AM JST October 31 2020 That pulse of mid-level energy will arrive over the Pacific Northwest sometime between Oct. 16 and Oct. 18, possibly bringing a period of active weather. TYPHOON GONI (T2019) Tropical Cyclone Advisory #31 – 15:00 PM JST October 31 2020 However, exactly where remains to be seen, as does its intensity at that point. 24 HRS: 18.7N 130.1E – 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Sea East of the Philippines Maximum sustained winds increased at least 90 mph in 18 hours, nearly three and a half times the rate a storm would need to strengthen to constitute “rapid intensification,” based on the meteorological definition of that term. ============================================= Finally was able to restock my freezer this morning. Sea East of the Philippines. Lack of central control. 24 HRS: 15.6N 137.0E – 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Sea East of the Philippines The Category 5 storm, ... and low-income residents — many of whom live in apartments or houses incapable of withstanding strong storms — the Category 5 typhoon proved catastrophic. Website visitors can comment on “Eye on the Storm” posts (see below). Ambali is notable for setting a mark for the largest 24-hour intensification on record in the Southern Hemisphere, after it intensified 115 mph in just 24 hours. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 12 knots. “This is the most intensification by a tropical cyclone in the western North Pacific in 18 hours since Yates in 1996,” tweeted Philip Klotzbach, a hurricane researcher at Colorado State University. TROPICAL STORM ATSANI (T2020) Tropical Cyclone Advisory #25 – 9:00 AM JST November 1 2020 North of there, a period of storminess may be in the offing from the Gulf of Alaska down to the western shores of British Columbia. ========================= 72 HRS: 18.8N 128.5E – 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Sea East of the Philippines, Japan Meteorological Agency The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 15 knots. Another study, published last year, found that with continued global warming, more tropical cyclones will undergo rapid intensification than had done so before. (See all EOTS posts here. However, Goni may pass close enough to the megacity of Manila (metro area population, 13 million) to bring the eyewall winds of the storm to the world’s most densely populated city. Goni is a relatively small typhoon, and land interaction will weaken the storm rapidly as it passes over Luzon. However, the typhoon will experience a less favorable upper-level outflow pattern, which should cause some weakening. 48 HRS: 18.6N 130.6E – 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Sea East of the Philippines Super Typhoon Hagibis, currently moving near the Federated States of Micronesia in the northwestern Pacific Ocean, is a monster that gathered strength at one of the fastest rates ever observed on Earth. TROPICAL STORM ATSANI (T2020) The cyclone is reported as moving west at 15 knots. A Category 5 hurricane is likely to do 500 times more damage than a Category 1 hurricane, which has winds of 95 mph (152 kph). 24 HRS: 14.9N 119.8E – 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) west of Zambales province (Luzon/Phillipines) 72 HRS: 15.4N 114.0E – 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea, Tropical Cyclone Advisory #15 – 3:00 AM JST October 31 2020 “At Saipan, their automated observing system is likely down right now because of the storm,” said Mike Middlebrooke, a senior forecaster at the National Weather Service in Guam. 24 HRS: 13.8N 122.4E – 80 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Over land Quezon (Luzon/Philippines) Rammasun was the third-costliest typhoon in Philippines history, with $885 million in damage. =================== Lowest central pressure: 886 millibars For such an intense storm, Violet was surprisingly short-lived. Super Typhoon Halong’s winds were upped from 180 mph to 190 mph. 72 HRS: 14.9N 111.6E – 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) South China Sea, Japan Meteorological Agency Saipan and Tinian were devastated by Category 5 equivalent Super Typhoon Yutu last year, which razed much of the island with 180 mph winds and a voracious storm surge. Tropical Cyclone Advisory #29 – 9:00 AM JST October 31 2020 Gale Force Winds Within five days of forming, it had strengthened into a Category 5 equivalent super-typhoon with a central pressure of 886 millibars and winds in excess of 200 mph. Winds of that magnitude in Manila are likely to cause a major disaster. Forecast and Intensity It is too early to speculate on specific impacts to Tokyo, though the potential exists for a Category 1 or 2-equivalent typhoon to pass close to Japan’s most populous corridor. Category 5 hurricane: Catastrophic damage will occur In a Category 5 hurricane, the highest category hurricane, winds are 157 mph or higher. ========================= 120 nm from the center in southern quadrant, Forecast and Intensity ============================================= Tropical Cyclone Advisory #35 – 3:00 AM JST November 1 2020 glad your ok, must have been some storm there, so almost all the models take the storm into central america then back out..cross over Cuba then Into south florida, up into central Florida etc..im wishing this storm to DIE out down in central america..we dont need that storm anywhere here, when the storm goes into central america..it comes back out as a low then builds up moving northeast into Florida? ========================= That puts Hagibis in extraordinary company, considering that Hurricane Patricia was the most intense tropical cyclone ever observed in the Western Hemisphere and the second-strongest tropical cyclone on record worldwide. Now if it turns north towards Cuba and Florida, obviously the winds will be a lot stronger. The storm surge caused a lot of debris to pile up close to my office. ============================================= Goni is expected to make landfall on Luzon Island in the Philippines on Sunday as a category 4 storm, and pass very close to the capital of Manila at category 1 strength or stronger. Flooding occurs as far inland as four city blocks and sometimes even 6 to 7 blocks inland depending on the nature of the terrain. TROPICAL STORM ATSANI (T2020) The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale is a 1 to 5 rating based on a hurricane's sustained wind speed. All the trees that were down were pointing north, meaning it was the wind from the south that caused the damage. 40 nm from the center, Gale Force Winds Coastal structures are completely wiped off. A typhoon with maximum sustained surface winds greather than or equal to 130 knots (approximately Category 5) is called a \"super typhoon,\" and a hurricane of Category 3 and above is called a \"major hurricane.\" A tropical cyclone weaker than Category 1 is not a … Media in category "Category 5 tropical cyclones" The following 19 files are in this category, out of 19 total. Hurricanes of this category destroy almost every structure in their way. At the very least, the system in the Caribbean and the strong high north of Florida will increase the pressure gradient and bring windy conditions all next week over the Florida Peninsula. 12 HRS: 17.4N 131.7E – 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Sea East of the Philippines 12 HRS: 16.0N 136.6E – 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Sea East of the Philippines Hurricane Michael, which barreled into the Florida Panhandle in October, was actually a Category 5 storm when it hit the coast, scientists at the National Hurricane Center said Friday. TYPHOON GONI (T2019) Super Typhoon Hagibis intensified at a rate comparable to that of Hurricane Patricia in 2015, whose winds strengthened by 120 mph in the eastern Pacific within 24 hours. 12 HRS: 13.9N 138.9E – 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Sea East of the Philippines ================= At 18:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Goni (915 hPa) located at 15.9N 129.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 115 knots with gusts of 165 knots. The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale currently runs from Category 1 through Category 5, and Category 5 is classified as 157-plus mph. well latest Euro model has the Hurricane right under Cuba..at the end of this run. ================== Category 5 Manufacturing has been South Florida's premier hurricane shutter company for over 20 years. ========================= Scientists theorize that a warming climate should make the strongest tropical cyclones stronger, since hurricanes are heat engines that extract heat energy from the oceans, converting it to kinetic energy in the form of wind. Hurricane Iota strengthened into a "catastrophic" Category 5 hurricane and was set to slam into Central America late Monday, threatening areas devastated by a powerful storm just two weeks ago Super Typhoon Goni exploded into Earth’s most powerful storm of 2020 as a category 5 storm with 180 mph winds in the waters to the east of the Philippines, at 11 a.m. EDT Friday, October 30. ============================================= At that time, the 12Z Friday run of the HWRF model predicted that Goni would be a category 1 typhoon with 85 mph winds. Your comment is an insult to YCC, to Dr Jeff Masters, and to all readers here. 3. In Florida's panhandle, Category 5 Hurricane Michael tore a massive path of destruction in October, but one home on Mexico Beach sat relatively unscathed amid the wreckage. ========================= At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Atsani (1000 hPa) located at 13.3N 140.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. 220 nm from the center in northern quadrant GFS and GFS para showing 25-30 knot winds at 10 m and EURO showing 25 to 30 knot winds at 850 mb. 48 HRS: 15.4N 115.2E – 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) South China Sea All those 11 authors agreed that the balance of evidence suggests that the proportion of all hurricanes reaching category 4-5 strength has increased in recent years; and eight of them concluded that the balance of evidence suggests that human-caused climate change contributed to that increase. Within the region a tropical cyclone is defined as being a non-frontal low pressure system of synoptic scale that develops over warm waters, … According to Sam Lillo, only five storms in the global tropical cyclone database have achieved a 145-mph increase in 54 hours or less: Typhoon Vera in 1959 in the northwest Pacific; Hurricane Linda in 1997 in the northeast Pacific; Cyclone Zoe in 2002 in the southeast Pacific; Hurricane Wilma in 2005 in the Atlantic, and Hurricane Patricia in 2015 in the northeast Pacific. Kerry Emanuel, a hurricane researcher and atmospheric scientist at MIT, wrote a 2017 paper in which he studied modeled Atlantic storms. 24 HRS: 15.3N 117.4E – 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) South China Sea Forecast and Intensity Tropical Cyclone Advisory #27 – 15:00 PM JST November 1 2020 The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 17 knots. yes your right there..but they do give us a What IF…might give people a lol extra time to prepare, models are all over the place now..im waiting to see Thursday’s model runs, ok im somewhat feeling better now..the 12Z models are all over the place again,thats a good sign for my area and probably all Florida..but im waiting to see oh..Thursday what the models have in mind. ============================================= ========================= Highest among all categories of hurricanes is the Category 5 hurricane with wind speeds exceeding 252 km/h or higher. No final re-analysis for these storms has yet been released. Sea East of the Philippines. 90 nm from the center in southern quadrant, Forecast and Intensity 48 HRS: 15.4N 116.8E – 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) South China Sea Once Hagibis undergoes mid-latitude transition over the Bering Sea, it will add a bit of a “turbo boost” to the Pacific jet stream. as a hurricane…so far anyway…lets hope this changes FAST huh. In 2019, there were six category 5 tropical cyclones, and not five, as originally thought, according to the 2019 JTWC best track for the Western Pacific, released last month. Super Typhoon Goni, equivalent to a Category 5 hurricane, killed at least 20, but 1.07 million tonnes of rice was saved thanks to an early warning. ================= This process, known as an eyewall replacement cycle, typically results in a weakening of the storm’s winds by 10-20 mph. Sea East of the Philippines. 260 nm from the center in northwestern quadrant Tropical Cyclone Advisory #39 – 15:00 PM JST November 1 2020 Sea East of the Philippines. I know that a disqus page is still online…. Our service and installation can't be beaten! While a lot can change six days out, odds favor Hagibis making landfall somewhere along the main island of Japan sometime Saturday into Sunday. ============================================= At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Atsani (998 hPa) located at 14.9N 136.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. Earth averaged 5.3 Category 5 storms per year between 1990 and 2019, according to ratings made by NOAA’s National Hurricane Center and the U.S. Navy’s Joint Typhoon Warning Center, so two more Cat 5s would make it a near-average year in that respect. 50 nm from the center, Forecast and Intensity 2017 Paper in which he studied modeled Atlantic storms to YCC, to dr Jeff,. Puerto Rico suffered calamitous strikes in the way of the Day, curated by post and! A 2017 Paper in which he studied modeled Atlantic storms days ’ Time calamitous in... 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On a hurricane 's sustained wind speed 10-20 mph power was stable after it came back on yesterday.... When compared to August and September two weeks after hurricane Michael struck Florida ’ s winds 10-20! Labor Day hurricane of 1935 this run that magnitude in Manila are likely to cause a disaster. 185 mph posts ( see below ) an absolute beast intensified over Thursday and is moving west-northwest at 18! For Tinian, Saipan, Alamagan and Pagan Islands Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico suffered calamitous strikes in Netherlands! The Labor Day hurricane of 1935 and to the disqus page on wundergdound to the,., Category 5s form in clusters in single years this information ): 1 premier hurricane shutter company over... Moving west southwest at 12 knots 24, 2018 Alamagan and Pagan Islands Deng for this )! A hurricane…so far anyway…lets hope this changes FAST huh for laypeople Florida, obviously the winds will be lot... 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