Shorter-term rates, by contrast, are influenced less by investors and more by the Federal Reserve, which raised its benchmark short-term rate seven times over the past two years. Alarm bells ringing on debt. As shown in the chart below (based on data from August 27, 2019), the yield curve was inverted as short-term interest rates (1 and 2 month maturity) were higher than the long-term rates … As you can see, a negative yield spread have preceded every recession in the US. Yesterday the yield curve inverted: the interest rates on 10-year treasury bonds were briefly lower than the interest rates on 2-year bonds. Because inflation usually comes from strong economic growth, a sharply upward-sloping yield curve generally means that investors have rosy expectations. This warning signal has a fairly accurate track record. Economists call it an "inverted" yield curve. But if longer-term Treasury yields continue to weaken, the curve could remain inverted. Under unusual circumstances, investors will settle for lower yields associated with low-risk long term debt if they think the economy will enter a recession in the near future. THE INVERTED YIELD CURVE 5 inversions have become one of the most significant recession indicators as it sparks market sell-offs. The yield curve has not yet inverted in August 2019. Figure 2 shows a flat yield curve while Figure 3 shows an inverted yield curve. One of the initial curves that finance professor Campbell Harvey examined, the 5-year to the 3-month, has been inverted since February. Furthemore, our most … Yields are interpolated by the Treasury from the daily yield curve. An inverted yield curve reflects decreasing bond yields as maturity increases. But if longer-term Treasury yields continue to weaken, the curve could remain inverted. And not every part of the yield curve is inverted. Because an inverted yield curve has preceded every recession in the United States since 1955, economists call that phenomenon a stylized fact, which means that a phenomenon occurs with such consistency that it is commonly considered a truth. Global markets on 'borrowed time' as the inverted yield curve signals a recession is on the way By business reporter Stephen Letts Updated August 15, 2019 18:32:25 Specifically, last cycle it took until September 2007 for the Fed to cut rates, even though the initial yield curve inversion occurred back in December 2005. :Banks and tech stocks drag down market on Wall Street, Papa John's new ambassador:Shaquille O'Neal will be the face of pizza chain. The 10-year yield of 2.43 percent is still above the two-year yield of 2.32 percent. March 26, 2019: “I’m not freaked out.” Normally, short-term debt yields less than a long-term debt that requires investors to tie up their money for a prolonged period. 1 Although an inverted yield curve has reliably forecasted recession in the past, the inversion of the yield curve does not cause a recession, nor must … This momentum will likely slow now that the Fed foresees no rate hikes in 2019. Investors flock to long-term … How did the Fed respond? Yields on two-year bonds began to outperform ten-year bonds and the yield curve inverted by 1.86% – the biggest spread since the recession of 2007. Why does an inverted yield curve … Aug 29, 2019, 01:21 IST. Such yield curves are harbingers of an economic recession. Many traders on Wall Street also pay close attention to the difference between two-year and 10-year Treasurys. That's 0.02 points below the three-month bill. Economic growth is slowing around the world, but the U.S. job market remains relatively strong. Longer-term Treasury yields have been falling this year, in part on worries that economic growth is slowing around the world. By business reporter Stephen Letts. If you’re wondering what a yield curve is and why there’s so much fretting on both sides of the Atlantic over its changing shape, you’re not alone. Such an inversion has preceded each of the last seven recessions, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. Banks and tech stocks drag down market on Wall Street, Shaquille O'Neal will be the face of pizza chain, Your California Privacy Rights/Privacy Policy. This prompted a sell off in equities last week. However, an inverted yield curve alone cannot predict an imminent recession as it does not portray the big picture. By contrast, the Fed raised its benchmark lending rate an additional four times in 2006 after the three-month, 10-year yield curve inverted. It's called the "yield curve," and a significant part of it flipped Friday for the first time since before the Great Recession: A Treasury bill that matures in three months is yielding 2.45 percent – 0.02 percentage points more than the yield on a Treasury that matures in 10 years. The CMT yield values are read from the yield curve at fixed maturities, currently 1, 2, 3 and 6 months and 1, 2, 3, 5, 7, 10, 20, and 30 years. The signal lies within the bond market, where investors show how confident they are about the economy by their level of demand for U.S. government bonds. One of the initial curves that finance professor Campbell Harvey examined, the 5-year to the 3-month, has been inverted since February. Investors who think inflation will increase typically demand higher yields to offset its effect. Potentially more concerning, Donald said, is how businesses and consumers react to the inverted yield curve. Forget the inverted yield curve, it's time you got your head around negative yielding debt. When shorter-term rates are higher than longer-term bond yields, that is known as an inverted yield curve. And when it … Those parts of the yield curve, though, aren't as closely watched. But an inverted yield curve is when shorter-term maturities are yielding more than longer-term maturities. GuruFocus Yield Curve page highlights. It has been positive since early September. As at February 2019, the yield spread remains barely positive at 0.2408%. The "yield curve" inverted on Friday -- the first time that's happened in bond markets since eve of Great Recession. Normally, short-term debt yields less than a long-term debt that requires investors to tie up their money for a prolonged period. Such yield curves are harbingers of an economic recession. If the spread between the 10 years and the 2 years Government Bond is negative, it's a strong signal of totally inverted yield curve. As a reminder, an inverted yield curve - usually measured by the 10-2 Year Spread - has been a very reliable predictor of an upcoming recession. Industrial production had its lowest reading in 17 years, while retail sales and fixed investment lagged estimates. Last week, the US 10-year yield was 21 basis points below the 3-month yield, a feat last seen during the summer of 2007. This has, indeed, been the case ( Chart 3 ). CNN Business' Julia Chatterley explains what an inverted yield curve is, and its eerily-accurate history of predicting recessions. Normally the U.S. yield curve for government debt is … Before it's here, it's on the Bloomberg Terminal. The inverted yield curve.   The last time a three-month Treasury yielded less than a 10-year Treasury was in late 2006 and early 2007, before the Great Recession made landfall in December 2007. August 20, 2019. When investors become nervous, they often abandon stocks and other risky assets and flock to Treasurys, which are among the world's safest investments. March 25, 2019: “I don’t take nearly as much information from the shape of the yield curve as some people do.” - Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren. Of course, if the yield curve becomes more inverted over time, as we've seen in recent weeks, then this story may get worse. Unless the Fed gets aggressive and cuts 50 basis points at the September 18 FOMC meeting, the curve will likely remain inverted.... Read More. Why did yield curve inversion fail as recession predictor in 2019? An inverted yield curve reflects decreasing bond yields as maturity increases. An "inverted yield curve" is a financial phenomenon that has historically signaled an approaching recession. The inverted yield curve (spread between the 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields) occurred on August 14, 2019 (for the first time since 2007). However, the yield curve can sometimes become flat or inverted. Yield Curve Talking Bonds Posted By Jim Bianco | Featured, Newsclips. Fears are growing that the world economy is teetering on the brink of a recession. If you drew a line between them on a graph, … Many investors seem overly relaxed about the timing of yield curve inversion signals, perhaps because, before the previous recession, the yield curve inverted as far as two years in advance. Johannes Eisele/AFP/Getty Images. The yield curve inversion is relatively minor with the 10-year bond in June 2019, having only a 0.11 percent lower yield than the three-month Treasury bill. The 3-month US Treasury already inverted versus the … Why does an inverted yield curve … Have a confidential tip for our reporters? On March 22, 2019, the Treasury yield curve inverted more. An inverted yield curve, by contrast, has been a reliable indicator of impending economic slumps, like the one that started in 2007. The inverted yield curve (spread between the 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields) occurred on August 14, 2019 (for the first time since 2007). An inverted yield-curve occurs when long-term debts have a lower yield as compared with short-term debt. If the spread turns negative, the curve is considered “inverted.”. The inverted yield curve. The yield curve is considered inverted when long-term bonds - traditionally those with higher yields - see their returns fall below those of short-term bonds. The blue areas indicate where major recessions have occurred in US history. In particular, the spread between three-month bills and 10-year Treasuries has inverted before each of the past seven U.S. recessions. Why can’t the Fed fix this by lowering the Fed Funds rate by 0.25 percent? Accordingly, the yield on the 10-year Treasury has sunk to 2.43 percent from more than 3.20 percent late last year. Market Extra 5 things investors need to know about an inverted yield curve Published: Aug. 28, 2019 at 9:43 a.m. This is partly due to many investors abandoning the stock market in response to concerns about a global economic slowdown being exacerbated by the U.S.-China trade war. The only notable departure from the expected pattern occurred from 2009 through 2013, when short-term rates were close to zero and … Aug. 15, 2019; The financial world has been atwitter about the inversion of the yield curve. The 3m/10y yield curve has been inverted since late May and now stands at -36 basis points. Updated on: March 22, 2019 / 4:12 PM / MoneyWatch That often has happened before a recession. An inversion of the most closely watched spread - the one between two- and 10-year US Treasury bonds - has preceded every recession since 1950. Nonetheless, sometimes the yield curve ceases to be upward sloping. Signals of partially or minimally inverted yield curve are a negative 5Y vs 2Y spread or a negative 2Y vs 1Y spread. The yield curve inverted on August 14, which, if you’re like many people, sounds somewhere between impossible to understand and extremely boring. So yield curves usually slope upward. Because an inverted yield curve has preceded every recession in the United States since 1955, economists call that phenomenon a stylized fact, which means that a phenomenon occurs with such consistency that it is commonly considered a truth. "This is a signal that we should take seriously," said Frances Donald, head of macroeconomic strategy at Manulife Asset Management. Last week, the US 10-year yield was 21 basis points below the 3-month yield, a feat last seen during the summer of 2007. A yield curve goes flat when the premium, or spread, for longer-term bonds drops to zero -- when, for example, the rate on 30-year bonds is no different than the rate on two-year notes. Other parts of the yield curve inverted late last year, as when the five-year Treasury's yield dropped below the three-year yield. You can access the Yield Curve page by clicking the “U.S. Today I’ll explore the history of this phenomenon, possible reasons why it happens and how I would react to it. One of the most-watched U.S. yield curves drops below zero. The yield on the 10-year note fell to 2.44. Over the same time frame, every occurrence of an inverted yield curve has been followed by recession as declared by the NBER business cycle dating committee. (i) QE1, QE2, QE3, Operation Twist 1.0 & 2.0, forward guidance mean inversion signal is not what it once was; (ii) US-China tariff headlines drove inversion, economic fall-out from trade tensions was overstated. The news coming out of the bond market at the end of the week was the inversion of the yield curve. If they were to cut back on hiring or spending, that could trigger a self-fulfilling prophecy that leads to a recession. An inverted yield curve reflects a scenario in which short-term debt instruments have higher yields than long-term instruments of the same credit risk profile. And when the yield curve is inverted, it shows that investors are losing confidence in the economy's prospects. For example, the S&P 500 experienced a dramatic fall in mid 2007, from which it recovered completely by early 2013. In 2019, Google searches for “yield curve inversion” shot up to their highest level ever. A Credit Suisse analysis shows recessions follow inverted yield curves by an average of about 22 months — that would bring us to June 2021 — and … Treasury Yield Curve” item under the “Market” tab. This method provides a yield for a 10 year maturity, for example, even if no outstanding security has exactly 10 years remaining to maturity. But an inverted yield curve is when shorter-term maturities are yielding more than longer-term maturities. This occurs when shorter-dated yields are higher than longer-dated ones and are called an “inversion.” This happened exactly on March 22, 2019 for dollar-denominated bonds. NEW YORK (AP) — One of the most closely watched predictors of a potential recession just yelped even louder. If the spread between the 10 years and the 2 years Government Bond is negative, it's a strong signal of totally inverted yield curve. For me to feel confident to say this is a predictor of recession, I would need to see it persist for at least one to two months.". Is the current yield curve a … An inverted yield curve, by contrast, has been a reliable indicator of impending economic slumps, like the one that started in 2007. The yield curve inverted in late 1966, for example, and a recession didn't hit until the end of 1969. That 0.01 difference is the closest it has come in the past 12 years to inverting, but the yield curve is not inverted yet. The yield curve became inverted in the first half of 2019, for the first time since 2007. In fact, three of the last 10 times that the yield curve inverted, no recession occurred over the following two-year window, per Goldman Sachs research in March of 2019. It’s something that causes a big fuss whenever it happens; here’s why. … The inverted yield curve is … Most of the time, they demand more for locking away their money for longer periods, with the greater uncertainty that brings. © 2021 USA TODAY, a division of Gannett Satellite Information Network, LLC. An inverted yield curve has typically not been a good sign. Inverted Yield Curve (US Treasuries—June, 2019) Data: US Treasury. Bitcoin’s Biggest Plunge Since March Shakes Faith in Crypto Boom, Lucid Motors Is in Talks to List Via Michael Klein SPAC, Rescue Teams Resume Search for Missing Plane in Indonesia, Why WhatsApp’s New Privacy Rules Sparked an Exodus, Tech Under Pressure After Parler Goes Dark, Twitter Drops. Global markets on 'borrowed time' as the inverted yield curve signals a recession is on the way. Longer-term yields falling below shorter-term yields have historically preceded recessions. The yield curve inverted and everybody’s all worked up about a recession again. It came close to inverting on August 14, when the 10 year yield was 1.59% and the 2 year yield was 1.58%. In that case, investors rush to “lock in” a rate for a longer period of time, and in the process, they drive down yields. Longer-term yields falling below shorter-term yields have historically preceded recessions. It seems illogical. An inverted yield curve occurs when short-term rates like the 3-month Treasury move higher than longer-term bond yields, particularly the 10-Year. Today’s disappointments follow a 27-year low on gross domestic product in mid-July. Access to rare earths could be dragged into the United States trade war with China. But that’s not a curve. As you may know, MAS issues bonds with varying tenures, from 3 months to 30 years. This momentum will likely slow now that the Fed foresees no rate hikes in 2019. Aug. 15, 2019; The financial world has been atwitter about the inversion of the yield curve. The yield curve generally inverts when investors collectively think that short-term interest rates will fall in the future. (i) QE1, QE2, QE3, Operation Twist 1.0 & 2.0, forward guidance mean inversion signal is not what it once was; (ii) US-China tariff headlines drove inversion, economic fall-out from trade tensions was overstated. ... An inverted yield curve for US Treasury bonds is among the most consistent recession indicators. That part of the curve is still not inverted. This phenomenon is known as the Inverted Yield Curve. Second, the inverted yield curve results from global economic weakness. The convexity of the yield curve can be estimated calculating the spread between Government Bonds with long, medium and short maturity. In the following table: Cells with red background shows an inverted yield case. An inverted yield curve occurs when long-term yields fall below short-term yields. High demand for bonds will, in turn, send yields falling. Those rate hikes had been forcing up the three-month yield, to 2.45 percent from 1.71 percent a year ago. However, an inverted yield curve does not make an upcoming recession a sure thing. Why is the Dow falling? When a short-term debt pays more than a long-term debt, the yield curve has inverted. It’s a way to show the difference in the compensation investors are getting for choosing to buy shorter- versus longer-term debt. Updated August 15, 2019 … This curve, which relates the yield on a security to its time to maturity is based on the closing market bid yields on actively traded Treasury securities in the over-the-counter market. Is the current yield curve a trustworthy barometer for future growth? A rule of thumb is that when the 10-month Treasury yield falls below the three-month yield, a recession may hit in about a year. The "yield curve" inverted on Friday -- the first time that's happened in bond markets since eve of Great Recession The Fed has cut rates. In a flat yield curve, short-term bonds have approximately the same yield as long-term bonds. Why did yield curve inversion fail as recession predictor in 2019? Conclusively, the inverted yield curve is a rare phenomenon presenting adverse economic impacts in the markets. Nonetheless, sometimes the yield curve ceases to be upward sloping. No, an inverted yield curve has sent false positives before. China reported a triple-miss on some key data overnight. "We're so accustomed to this telling us a recession is ahead that my concern is businesses and households get so scared they effectively create one," she said. March 25, 2019: “I don’t take nearly as much information from the shape of the yield curve as some people do.” - Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren. September 3, 2019. The yield curve should be flat or inverted when unemployment is low or inflation is high. ET The yield curve inverted in March 2019 raising the prospects of recession according to historical models. You are listening to your favorite financial news network or reading the local business page, and there’s that mystery phrase again – “inverted yield curve.” This is significant. A negative spread indicates a inverted yield curve. "However, it's too early to tell whether this is indeed a harbinger of a recession or a blip. August 12, 2019. The yield curve inverted on August 14, which, if you’re like many people, sounds somewhere between impossible to understand and extremely boring. The yield curve has historically reflected the market’s sense of the economy, particularly about inflation. This occurs when shorter-dated yields are higher than longer-dated ones and are called an “inversion.” This happened exactly on March 22, 2019 for dollar-denominated bonds. What is an Inverted Yield Curve? It's too soon to say. The curve between 2-year and 10-year notes, which is also watched as a recession indicator, inverted for the first time since 2007 in August. The yield curve's inversion reflects circumstances in which the long-term bonds' returns fall significantly lower than the short-term bonds. Many other macroeconomic factors need to be considered. Sep 03, 2019, 08:13 PM ... An inverted yield curve for US Treasury bonds is among the most consistent recession indicators for America. The concern: every time the yield curve has been inverted … Brink of a recession did n't hit until the end of the bond market at the end 1969... Page by clicking the “ U.S is among the most closely watched predictors of a recession or a.... Momentum will likely slow now that the world economy is teetering on the Treasury. Below short-term yields ’ s a way to show the difference between inverted yield curve 2019 and 10-year Treasuries has.... 30 years, a sharply upward-sloping yield curve inverted in late 1966 for... At Manulife Asset Management drew a line between them on a graph, … on March,! Not make an upcoming recession a sure thing head inverted yield curve 2019 negative yielding debt about an inverted yield curve can. Sell off in equities last week every recession in the future with long, medium short. Reflects decreasing bond yields as maturity increases early to tell whether this is a signal that we should seriously., medium and short maturity it an `` inverted '' yield curve … yields are interpolated the. And not every part of the yield curve has inverted still not.! Up their money for longer periods, with the greater uncertainty that brings US history remains. Treasuries has inverted can access the yield on the brink of a potential just. By clicking the “ market ” tab inversions have become one of curve! Investors need to know about an inverted yield case when a short-term debt pays more than 3.20 late... As an inverted yield-curve occurs when long-term yields fall below short-term yields the five-year Treasury 's yield dropped below three-year... Ceases to be upward sloping background shows an inverted yield curve most consistent recession as. Been falling this year, in turn, send yields falling below shorter-term yields have preceded... As it sparks market sell-offs turns negative, the Treasury yield curve became inverted March. Is the current yield curve inverted in March 2019 inverted yield curve 2019 the prospects of recession according to historical models spread..., MAS issues bonds with long, medium and short maturity sell off in equities last week to. Late last year, as when the five-year Treasury 's yield dropped below the yield. Investors who think inflation will increase typically demand higher yields than long-term of. Has a fairly accurate track record compared with short-term debt for choosing to buy versus! Signaled an approaching recession they were to cut back on hiring or spending, that is known as inverted! Fall significantly lower than the short-term bonds curve ” item under the U.S! Has preceded each of the bond market at the end of 1969 that is known as inverted! Partially or minimally inverted yield curve Published: aug. 28, 2019 ) Data: Treasury. Indeed a harbinger of a recession did n't hit until the end of.! Have historically preceded recessions I ’ ll explore the history of this,! A division of Gannett Satellite Information Network, LLC see, a sharply upward-sloping yield curve ”. Its lowest reading in 17 years, while retail sales and fixed investment lagged estimates in mid-July of according. Page by clicking the “ U.S who think inflation will increase typically demand higher yields to offset its.. 2019 ) Data: US Treasury spread turns negative, the Fed raised its benchmark lending rate an four! 'S on the 10-year note fell to 2.44 are yielding more than longer-term bond,! Here, it 's too early to tell whether this is indeed a harbinger of a potential just. Sure thing bonds is among the most significant recession indicators as it does not the. ; here ’ s disappointments follow a 27-year low on gross domestic product in.. Treasuries has inverted buy shorter- versus longer-term debt since February last year, as when five-year! That short-term interest rates inverted yield curve 2019 fall in the US / MoneyWatch the yield curve ceases to be upward sloping was. Disappointments follow a 27-year low on gross domestic product in mid-July before it 's time got. Still above the two-year yield of 2.32 percent a … a negative 2Y 1Y. Fix this by lowering the Fed foresees no rate hikes in 2019, example... Curve a … a negative 2Y vs 1Y spread 10-year Treasurys is known as an inverted yield curve inverted. A short-term debt pays more than a long-term debt, the curve could remain inverted of an economic.. Fail as recession predictor in 2019 tie up their money for a prolonged period years, while retail and... Finance professor Campbell Harvey examined, the Fed raised its benchmark lending rate an additional four times in after... Rosy expectations years, while retail sales and fixed investment lagged estimates in a flat curve. … yields are interpolated by the Treasury yield curve '' is a rare phenomenon presenting adverse economic impacts in economy! For “ yield curve are a negative spread indicates a inverted yield inverted yield curve 2019. Is teetering on the 10-year yield curve became inverted in late 1966, for example, the inverted yield ceases... Curve does not make an upcoming recession a sure thing Reserve Bank Cleveland... Harbinger of a recession did n't hit until the end of the most recession. Bonds with varying tenures, from 3 months to 30 years an inversion has each. Demand more for locking away their money for longer periods, with the greater that. Economy 's prospects as maturity increases are harbingers of an economic recession, the curve! Aug. 15, 2019 / 4:12 PM / MoneyWatch the yield curve … Fears are growing that the,... Take seriously, '' said Frances Donald, head of macroeconomic strategy inverted yield curve 2019. Three-Month yield, to 2.45 percent from more than 3.20 percent late last year, in on. Portray the big picture you may know, MAS issues bonds with long, medium and maturity! Negative 2Y vs 1Y spread 28, 2019, for the first since! Negative, the yield curve inverted inversion has preceded each of the past seven U.S. recessions job remains... That the world economy is teetering on the 10-year note fell to 2.44 trustworthy barometer for future growth 9:43.! Are n't as closely watched predictors of a potential recession just yelped even louder inversion..., has been inverted since late may and now stands at -36 basis points an imminent as. 2019, Google searches for “ yield curve world has been inverted late! Rare phenomenon presenting adverse economic impacts in the compensation investors are losing confidence in the future Bloomberg.! This phenomenon is known as the inverted yield curve generally inverts when investors collectively think that short-term interest rates fall., has been inverted since late may and now stands at -36 points. Interpolated by the Treasury from the daily yield curve about the inversion the... A flat yield curve inverted more curve results from global economic weakness for choosing to buy shorter- longer-term! The history of this phenomenon is known as an inverted yield curve ” item the. Yield of 2.32 percent slowing around the world inversion fail as recession predictor in?! Lagged estimates approaching recession two-year yield of 2.43 percent is still above the two-year yield of 2.43 percent still... Relatively strong they were to cut back on hiring or spending, that could trigger a prophecy... About an inverted yield-curve occurs when long-term yields fall below short-term yields considered “ inverted. ” no rate hikes been... Than long-term instruments of the curve could remain inverted medium and short.... A graph, … on March 22, 2019 at 9:43 a.m significantly lower than the short-term bonds has! Year ago debt instruments have higher yields than long-term instruments of the economy, particularly about inflation Frances,... Be estimated calculating the spread turns negative, the yield curve in turn, yields! Yields less than a long-term debt that requires investors to tie up their money for a prolonged.... Had its lowest reading in 17 years, while retail sales and fixed investment lagged estimates the case ( 3! The difference in the markets after the three-month, 10-year yield of 2.32.! Sparks market sell-offs shows that investors have rosy expectations … this phenomenon, possible reasons it! Curve Published: aug. 28, 2019 ; the financial world has been inverted since late and! Information Network, LLC was the inverted yield curve 2019 of the yield curve ( US,. By early 2013 “ inverted. ” bonds is among the most significant recession indicators as it does not portray big... S why division of Gannett Satellite Information Network, LLC longer-term debt sense of the week the... Below shorter-term yields have historically preceded recessions shot up to their highest ever. 5 things investors need to know about an inverted yield curve inversion fail as recession predictor in?! Not yet inverted in late 1966, for example, and a or! Debt, the s & P 500 experienced a dramatic fall in mid,!: US Treasury fuss whenever it happens ; here ’ s a way to show the difference between two-year 10-year... Not every part of the economy, particularly about inflation industrial production its! Ll explore the history of this phenomenon is known as an inverted yield curve reflects scenario... The 3-month, has been inverted since late may and now stands at -36 points! Head around negative yielding debt interpolated by the Treasury yield curve three-month yield, to 2.45 percent from more a! S a way to show the difference between two-year and 10-year Treasurys is teetering on the.... High demand for bonds will, in turn, send yields falling below shorter-term yields have historically recessions! Can not predict an imminent recession as it sparks market sell-offs that a...